This one should not be a hard game to predict—but it is. The Patriots should win this one with ease; it shouldn’t even look competitive. But when you take into consideration how poorly the Patriots are playing, it is hard not to see this as a competitive game.
Ryan Tannehill isn’t exactly lighting it up on offence for the Dolphins, but he is doing enough for the team to win. He’s completing an unreal percentage of his passes (73 percent) and isn’t making mistakes. The Miami run game isn’t great, but it isn’t terrible either.
But against the Patriots defence, Tannehill and the run game could look like Pro Bowlers.
New England’s defence is giving up an average of 263 yards a game so far (23rd in the league). They are giving up 143.3 yards a game on the ground (31st). Offences are doing whatever they feel like doing against the Pats defence so far.
In year’s past, they’ve been able to cover for a poor defence with a dominant offense—but that isn’t working now either. Detroit took away Rob Gronkowski just like Jacksonville did. If Miami can do the same, this one has upset written all over it.
So—who’s going to win?
It seems like the Patriots offence is going to struggle until Julian Edelman comes back—and that’s not until next week. So, look for Ryan Tannehill to have his first 300-yard passing day of the season and record his first win over the Patriots in Foxboro.
Take the Dolphins (+235) to win over the Patriots (-303.03). If they don’t win, the Patriots will not cover the spread (7). As for the over/under (48)— neither offence can be trusted to score much. Go with the under.